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Megatrends Asia, by John Naisbitt
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While the attention of the West has been fixed on the USSR and Eastern Europe, a quieter, cumulative revolution has been taking place in Asia which may have even more profound consequences for world history. As we move towards 2000, Asia will become the dominant region of the world: economically, politically and culturally. Up until the 1990s, the West set the rules. Now, Asians are creating their own rules and will soon determine the game as well. Even Japan will be left behind as the countries of South East Asia, led by the Overseas Chinese and China, increasingly hold economic sway. In the Asian Renaissance, a new network of nations based on economic symbiosis and the enterprise of the Overseas Chinese is emerging in a global shift of the world's centre of economic and political gravity. The Asian continent, from India to Japan, from below the old Soviet Union down to Indonesia, now accounts for more than half of the world's population. And as many as half a billion will be what the West consider middle class. That market is roughly the size of the United States and Europe combined. This is a consumer miracle holding vast economic consequences. Furthermore, a huge urban shift is moving Asia to the information age as it rushes towards computers and telecommunications. There is an unprecedented increase in women entrepreneurs. Asians believe that not only is the cost of the welfare state a heavy burden on competitiveness, but it is also socially destructive; in Asia, families take care of themselves above all else. This raises central questions for the West, especially for the USA and Europe. The modernization of Asia is best understood not as Westernization, but as the Asianization of Asia as the global axis of influence shifts from West to East. The eight Asian megatrends that are changing the world are: from nation states to networks; from export-led to consumer-driven; from Western influence to the Asian way; from government-controlled to market-driven; from villages to supercities; from labour-intensive to high technology; from male dominance to the emergence of women; and from West to East. John Naisbitt is the author of "Megatrends" and "Global Paradox".
- Sales Rank: #4625025 in Books
- Published on: 1997-02-04
- Original language: English
- Dimensions: 5.31" h x .98" w x 8.46" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 288 pages
From Publishers Weekly
Bestselling prognosticator Naisbitt (Megatrends 2000) predicts that the West?and even Japan?will be left behind as the countries of Southeast Asia, led by China and a collaborative network of "overseas Chinese" entrepreneurs in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore increasingly gain economic power. The global axis of power and influence has already shifted from West to East, in his assessment, and the principal trends underlying Asia's rapid modernization include a shift from central government control to free-market economies, the emergence of female entrepreneurs, mass migration to cities and a resurgent individualistic spirit that rejects welfarism. Naisbitt, who has been based in Malaysia for more than a year, peppers this upbeat and optimistic, if shallow, report with sweeping predictions and snap analyses that seem to hit and miss their targets in equal measure. 125,000 first printing; $100,000 ad/promo; first serial to Working Woman.
Copyright 1996 Reed Business Information, Inc.
From Library Journal
This latest work by mega-best-selling author Naisbitt identifies eight Asian megatrends that are reshaping our world. The number eight, considered lucky in Asia, is significant here. Coming political, economic, and cultural changes will soon render Asia the dominant region of the world, and Naisbitt offers advice that will help the reader profit by the changes. The work looks at the region as a whole. In general, things Western are falling out of favor, as key places return to Chinese rule. However, Western problems such as divorce and crime are on the increase. The magnitude and far-reaching effects of the modernization of Asia are emphasized here; Naisbitt even asserts that the changes in modernization are without question the most important events taking place in the world today. Japan has just begun an economic decline that will increase rapidly in the coming years. The book does not linger long on any topic but gives readers snippets of information before moving on. A chart contrasts Asian and American values, shedding light on the respective cultures. Not surprisingly, Americans are said to value individual rights over an orderly society, which may explain the situation in which we currently find ourselves. Extensive notes are provided. Recommended for all public and academic libraries. (Index not seen.)-Lisa K. Miller, Paradise Valley Community Coll. Lib., Phoenix
Copyright 1996 Reed Business Information, Inc.
About the Author
John Naisbitt has been studying and visiting China for forty-two years, first in 1967, with more than one hundred visits since. A former professor at Nanjing University, he is currently a professor at both Nankai University and Tianjin University of Finance and Economics.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Mussolini Redux
By Stephen M. Schwartz
This book is frighteningly like the accolades written in the thirties in support of Fascism. Newspeak prevails. The "eight pillars" are no more than a series of propaganda slogans endorsed by the People's Ministry of Truth.
As one example, the Naisbitts hold up something called "vertical democracy" as a new, improved, Asian alternative to the "Western" model. Vertical democracy, however, is never defined. instead it appears to be a management slogan that would be more familiar to an MBA than a corporate lawyer.
Even propaganda might be worth reading if the chapters each broke new ground. After the first few pages, however, the Naisbitts' theme becomes predictable. A western principle, e.g. free speech is raised as an arrogant shibboleth only to be toppled in the face of glorious examples of State Corporatism. For example, in the "pillar" devoted toward liberating the artists and intellectuals, a few anecdotes are given about how individuals have become wealthy selling their work in a global market while explaining that conformity to the State line is good for business. Suppression of a free press is written off as necessary to good order.
Chinese excesses such as cultural hegemony within its own borders, support for abusive governments in Korea, Burma, Africa or the mideast, are celebrated as examples of how stupid the west is not to understand the beneficient intent of the Chinese system. Classism, a rising issue in China, is not mentioned.
The claim to predict the future would be all too familiar t corporate flacks working for Microsoft, Sony, Phillips, Putin, or il Duce.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
The brighter side of Orientalism
By Newton Ooi
One of the consistent themes in recent Western literature is a habit of comparing East Asian culture and society with those in the West, and specifically, to pick out those features of East Asian society that were unique and intrinsice to East Asia. Known as Orientalism, this genre had a condenscending undercurrent and brought forth images of coolies pulling rickshaws, corrupt officials smoking in opium dens, and Western sailors catching "yellow fever" in places like Bangkok and Singapore.
From the 1970s' onward, Orientalism has been replaced by growing praise of the economies of the East Asian countries, especially those with large Chinese populations such as Taiwan, Malaysia and China itself. Boasting the virtues of good education, disciplined populations, and strong family ties, Westerners have authored thousands of books on the growing power of the Orient. This book, Megatrends Asia, is just one in a long line of such works. The author uses empirical and statistical data to draw out 8 trends that are transforming the region into a world economic powerhouse. These trends are presented as primarily a shift from a rural, state-directed economy to a networked, consumer-driven, city-based economy. All this is true, but the author fails to fully explore several trends that though are not as positive and beneficial, are still as important in dictating the future of this region. Specifically, these trends are
1. The growing dependence on imported energy. Notice China's overtures to various West Asian countries due to oil and natural gas needs.
2. The spread of AIDS, heart disease, obesity, and other "lifestyle" illnesses.
3. The growth of military spending AND foreign military involvement in the various East Asian countries.
4. The growth in the black market of this region. Forget about the Hondas made in Japan or the seafood farmed in Thailand. What is really making dollars is all the illegal activity such as intellectual property infringement, the sex trade, the production and marketing of dirt cheap consumer goods sporting brand names from Europe's fashion centers...
5. The mass, and often forced, migration of whole communities to make way for factories, highways, and other features of an industrial economy.
6. The rise of militant Islam. Especially noticeable in Indonesia and Malaysia, but also present in Singapore, Phillipines and Thailand, this foreboding trend is making the orient the next battle ground in Bush's War on Terror.
Overall, this book is good, but not great. It correctly recognizes and explores major, region-wide changes, but ignores or minimizes several other major changes.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
An interesting synopsis of recent history
By Floccinaucinihilipilification
Naisbitt explores eight trends that made Asia an economic dynamo during the 80s & 90s. Written prior to the major crash in 1997, the book covers the positives of the go-Goh years. While it's easy to criticise in hindsight, the book fails to recognise some of the major failures of economies which are built so quickly. Like the buildings of many of the Asian cities the book discusses, they were built too quickly and are now crumbling.
Naisbitt does however highlight some interesting points. If one were to look at periods of economic growth (cf. China now) they are characterised by similar factors: integrated globalisation rather than nationalism; broadened options / greater choice; consumer-driven growth rather than low cost labour bases; market driven vs centrally planned; rural agro-economies to urbanisation; labour intensive to hi-tech; greater participation of women in the workplace. The 8th, however - "from west to east" - is far from an objective, intelligent look at Asian success. Sycophancy goes a long way in Asia - but objectivity is the basis of sound business books. There are many things in Asian culture which actively mitigate against Asia's ascendancy to its economic potential - it would have been more beneficial (not to mention professional) for the author to compare the Asian vs western approaches vis-�-vis long-term economic growth and prosperity.
The book is easy-to-read and has good Notes and Index sections. Obviously, ten years later, the book is severely out of date (I've lost count of the crises which have taken their toll on the region), so you'd probably be better of getting this from your nearest library and skimming through it.
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